Against Astrology -Part II - Experiments

*Warning* A VERY long post below. But important. Please read. And patiently... bad language in commented is NOT appreciated. And only two limericks ... am in a hurry, with exams coming up and all. :-)

Today's Bombay Times is fat (sigh)
They have a special on "Gemini"
Their 12th anniversary
But they're still in nursery
They can't separate fact from crap, that's why!

In the previous post, we dealt with the theoritical refutation of astrology. It's good enough on it's own (for all theory is of course experimentally confirmed), but here, I plan to deal with more serious and convincing issues: Hidden Persuaders, Tests of astrology, and whether astrology has any importance today. A very useful reference is Skepdic's article on astrology, and the links below it. Others will be cited below.

Hidden Persuaders

Why do scientists reject astrology even though we can see that it works? I mean, anyone would agree with their descriptions they read in their horoscopes, sun-sign charts, etc. So, why do these "skeptics" refuse to believe?

That's because they know of the existence of "Hidden Persuaders". An example is the Forer effect: Psychologist Bertram Forer made his students take a personality test, and gave each of them a result, and asked them to rate the evaluation's accuracy. The average was 85%... everyone thought the description was accurate for themselves. But, he had given each student the same evaluation! This is what's called a hidden persuader : we ignore the inaccurate aspects and concentrate only on the ones which apply to us.

A list of hidden persuaders:
Confirmation Bias, Self Deception, Subjective Validation, Barnum Effect, Communal Reinforcement , Testimonials etc. Do read the linked articles, they're readable and informative.

In short, hidden persuaders are things which lead us to wrong conclusions because we are biased. When we read a horscope, or a personality description, we are biased, and think it is accurate and describes us. This isn't harmful in itself, but when we are led into spending money and time upon it, it becomes so.

Tests of Astrology

My principal reference for this section is a paper by Dean and Kelly : "Is astrology relevant to consciousness and psi?" (a pdf link). The paper contains much more information than just the tests, including some information on astrologers' views, hidden persuaders, etc.

The most trusted tests conducted are known as "Control group double-blind tests". In these tests, control groups are used, and neither experimenter nor subjects know who the controls are. This is essentially to remove the effects of the hidden persuaders.

Now we come to the tests of astrology. Tests which study the rlation between astrology and consciousness, psi are important because without scientific explanation, astrologers resort to psychic explanations, or to unknown forces. These can only be measured by experiment. A note about effect sizes: an effect of 0.4 means 70% accuracy where 50% would be that expected by chance. This is how the accuracy of the tests is measured. If astrology is right, effect sizes should be atleast 0.5.

Astrology asserts that one's life depends on the positions of stars at one's birth... in effect, on thebirth time. Time twins are a perfect test of astrology. "Time twins" refers to people who are born very close to each other in time. A study (unconnected with astrology) consisted of 2101 persons born in London from 3-9 March 1958, born on average 4.8 minutes apart. 110 relevant variables like IQ, rating for behaviour, etc, were measured at ages 11, 16 and 23, with16 variables as controls. Many of the 110 are supposed to be included in the birth chart. But the effect sizes due to astrology are calculated to be 0.00+- 0.03 . Time twins do not show any similarities which astrology says must be there.

Astrologers are however convinced that the birth chart is so complex that a single factor cannot be tested. If birth charts are so complex, how do astrologers themselves read them? Tests of astrologer accuracy have been conducted, and a meta-analysis of these gives a mean effect size of 0.051. Tests of astrologer agreement (meta-analysis) give an effect size of 0.101. Astrologers are not accurate in matching birth charts to profiles, and they don't even agree with each other.

We can, thus, say that even when tested, astrology does not work.

Why no Astrology?

I'd give a simple enough reason: It doesn't work.

But, astrology is still practised and believed in many parts of the world. It is harmful, because millions of dollars are spent on something that doesn't work. Some people seem to think that clients get comfort from the advice given, and thus astrology serves it's purpose. That is, simply and plainly, wrong. Two reasons:

Critical Thinking. The Bad Astronomer mentions this on his blog, and it is as important a reason as anything: Critical thinking is essential to humanity's survival. Scientific, organised thinking is what has caused humanity to come so far. Unless we recognise our biases and seek the truth in a controlled way, we'll not progress. Astrology destroys this essential skill.

Secondly, astrologers do not advice people, they just suggest them to change their names, hold rituals, or something like that. That will not help, except misleading people into thinking they're on the right path. It'll lead to harm. Astrology can be used in counselling: www.astrology-and-science.com has two articles advising astrologers in counselling, but they mostly ask them to use astrology only as a device to connect with the subject, and concentrate on counselling, not astrology.

So, here is The Grand Conclusion:

The conclusion grande, in a song
Holding my tongue in a tong
(I don't want to pout)
But can't stop the shout:
Astrology is (really, really) wrong!!!!

Having supported the statement with theoritical as well as experimental evidence, I hope you'll keep away from astrology. And spread the message.

Thanks. Do comment.

Against Astrology -Part I - Theory

OK, Time has come for my post on astrology. I have read a lot about this (or atleast what I think is a lot), and I hope this post satisfies you. Most of the things here are not mine, but I'm posting this as an indicator to better sites. Just giving you an in-brief view. This is part I, dealing with the "theories of astrology". Part II will deal with the experiments conducted on astrology.

(Note: This part is based on The Bad Astronomer on astrology. Another good page is Theories of Astrology. If you want, you can read my short posts on astrology and psuedoscience.)

The Scientific Method

There was once a man named Experiment
Whose whole life in the lab was spent
Since he never came out
His friend Science had to shout
"You don't exist if you don't come out!"*

*Well, this is technically not a limerick, but it's a breed of poem with a aabbb scheme. I call it the bbbarick. ;-)

What is the scientific method? It has been, and still is, the subject of many controversies... so, rather than stating it in my words, I'll quote SkepDic: (from here... very useful page)

"There is no single scientific method. Some of the methods of science involve logic, e.g., drawing inferences or deductions from hypotheses, or thinking out the logical implications of causal relationships in terms of necessary or sufficient conditions. Some of the methods are empirical, such as making observations, designing controlled experiments, or designing instruments to use in collecting data... whatever one scientist is able to do qua scientist, any other scientist should be able to duplicate."

We'll deal with the first point here, namely, the hypothesis part. The empirical methods will be dealt with in part II.

A note on why the Scientific Method is important: Because that is the logical way we know if something works. If something works, we should be able to establish logical consistency in it, and we should be able to test it in controlled experiments. Science is falsifiable: it can be proved false. That's an essential quality... if something cannot be proved false, it explains nothing.

Astrology and Astronomy

Three confusing cheers for astrology
It certainly deserves a fine eulogy
For it brilliantly looted
Astronomy, reputed
Of it's science status by a name similogy!

Astrologers generally tell us that Saturn, Jupiter, and the stars exert forces on us, and that's how they affect our lives. I even heard an astrologer say once on TV: "Saturn is the largest planet (what???) , and it has a gravitational effect on the earth. If it can affect the earth, imagine how much it can affect us."

Now, what I say might just be rehashing what the Bad Astronomer says on his page, but it's necessary...

• There are only 4 documented forces of nature, two of them (nuclear ones) are just that: nuclear. They don't have large scale effects. Electromagnetism is stronger than gravity, but planets do not have any net charge (if it was there, we'd have observed it as deviations from Newton's Law of Gravitation), nor are there any large scale currents. So, those three forces are rules out.
• When we think of stars and planets affecting us, it's always gravity that strikes us. Yeah, well, if the biggest planet (Jupiter, not Saturn) "can have an effect on the earth", it'll certainly have a greater effect on us... ... Sadly, that's false: Gravitation is also proportional to the mass of the object on which it acts. And the force of Jupiter on the earth is miniscule... it's effects on us will be much smaller.
  
• "If the moon can cause tides" : Again, the mass of the oceans is much greater than our mass, so, the effects of the tidal force on us will be small, very small. And planets being much farther than the moon, and the tidal force being inversely proportional to R cubed, the planets have practically no tidal effects on us .
  
• One more thing: The nurse and doctors, and the furniture present at your birth has more effects on you than Jupiter.
  
• Forget the stars, they are too far away. Even if they make special shapes in the sky, or may be in a certan position when an event is happenning: their force is much too little, and they were in that position years ago, it's now that we see them there (light isn't infinitely fast).
  
• More info and figures about the gravitational forces of stars on us here.

Consciousness and other claims

So, if it's not one of the four forces, what is it? Astrologers have come up with various theories. Some say it's psychic ability, some say there is something in the stars which changes our consciousness, andthus affects us. Remember, if it's true, it's testable.

I'm definitely not an authority on this, so 'd like you to check out the "Theories of Astrology" page I linked to above. If you think that page is too long, well, here's small synopsis of the page:
Spiritual, magical, or informational explanations of astrology do not show any testable results. Astrology simply works because of hidden persuaders* .

*Will be covered in Part II.

Chaos

Ah, my first interview, this eve
My astrologer said "have no peeve"
And one day I'll be boss
And lead 'em to zero loss...
And I'll... aaaah! Help me, to leeeeeeeve!

(Oops, didn't see the train coming, doctor...)

Now, I know we all like to predict the future, or to have it predicted. But, but, but, life is essentially unpredictable. Missing a single train could change your life. Not accounting for a small error in a 3-body system will render it's course unpredictable after some time.In real life, there are so many variables, and even if astrology covers some of them (which it does not), at initial conditions (at birth) we will require extraordinarily accurate information to predict successfully after, say, an year or more.

Life is chaos. Life is unpredictable.

Adios till the next post.

New Lights-1

The earlier light was blue, My new light is Red
Now different is my shoe, And different is my bed.

The things I thought were violet, now they're strangely dark
And new colours appear, on objects previously stark.

I see the room now, better
Although I see the same,
My vision is greater.

A change of perspective can do wondrous things to you: reaffirm your beliefs, challenge them, even make you adopt sillier ones. However, such a change can be beneficial. So, in today's post, I experimented. First, I begin with a quote from Bertrand Russell, and then I move on to address "Shallowness" and Astrology from different viewpoints than I actually support. I'll post a New Lights - 2 in a few days. I didn't want to make this post too long (although it IS very long). :)

A good way of ridding yourself of certain kinds of dogmatism is to become aware of opinions held in social circles different from your own.If you cannot travel, seek out people with whom you disagree, and read a newspaper belonging to a party that is not yours. If the people and the newspaper seem mad, perverse, and wicked, remind yourself that you seem so to them. In this opinion both parties may be right, but they cannot both be wrong. This reflection should generate a certain caution. - Bertrand Russell, "An Outline of Intellectual Rubbish"

Now for the real content. It's in ascending order of importance (an order which will continue in New Lights -2). The first section isn't really important, just some thoughts.

In Favour of Shallow Men

What is shallowness? In this context, it means a man who takes only looks into account, not a woman's intelligence or nature. Just looks. That's bad, right?
Maybe... not. After all, consider men who go after intelligent girls. Aren't they partial? How are intelligent girls "better" than good-looking ones? Some people prefer intelligence, some prefer looks. Some have other tastes. There is no universal definition of "better".To each his own. So don't think less of shallow men. It's their kind of thing.

In Favour of Astrology

My stars guide me to my fate
It's above, in formations great
Look at them, and see
What will be your destiny
Don't fill the mind with scientific hate!

Psuedoscience is a field I'm very interested in. Sometimes, though, one has to think from the other side. Let me say at the beginning that these are not my normal views, and the arguments contain flaws. Still...

Why do all skeptics think they're always right? They try to impose "objectivity" and the "scientific method" as a constraint on everything.

Firstly, we can't be totally objective. Evolution has built us such that we need intuition, and rely on it. One can't totally eliminate the bias. Secondly, what fields should the scientific method be applied to? Astrology is not science, it doesn't claim to be. So why insist on applying the scientific method to it? And, is the scientific method foolproof?

Also, how can we be sure that researchers always eliminate bias? Several studies claim to show astrology is false, but those are done by researchers who are biased against astrology.
Astrology is a complex field, and a study of only one factor (like intelligence) does not conclusively disprove it. There are other factors which should be taken into account. Also, Astrology has been practised successfully for more than 2000 years. It is a verified fact. One cannot challenge it just because he/she thinks it's not "science".

Lastly ( I think this is the best real argument), Astrology helps people. Astrologers have years of experience in dealing with troubled people. They know what their clients need, and supply them with advice and confidence. Sometimes, all people need is confidence, and astrologers provide just that, at a nice prices.

For the uninitiated in astro-skepticism, go here. Read it, it's interesting.
A very good (though not "nice") exchange can be found (in four long parts) in these links: 1 2 3 4 . This is also a good site.

Hopefully, you liked this one, although I didn't address really important issues. I have some good topics for New Lights-2, really murky territory. I think I'll post that in a few days, based on the response.

Do comment. :)

Pseudoscience

Numerology, Tarot, Reading sun signs
Why do we believe that they're science?
Testimonials, self-deception
Biased, wrong perception
I think science has been fed to the lions.

The above post says it all. I've also included links there, to Skeptic's dictionary. There are a lot of articles there, you'll find the links to the others from the ones above. Here is another link about the scientific method. These links are important, but easy to understand and read.

Why is pseudoscience important (ie. harmful) ? That's because it discourages critical thinking. It is important to be sceptical and not take everything at face value. It is important to consider the evidence, be aware of your biases before you take a stand on anything, and believe anything. And it is important to know what represents the truth, and how to find it out. Without Critical Thinking, we'd be very easy to manipulate. Unfortunately, astrology, numerology are believed inspite of the fact that they fail to satisfy scientific expperiments. Millions of Rupees are wasted every year on these things which fail to connect with reality. That is why understand pseudoscience is important.

Critical Thinking is an important tool
Without it, anyone, anything would rule
It's essential, to find
The truth, it's kind
Or we'd all be very easy to fool.

I'm not an expert.. the pages I've linked to have articles by people well-versed with science and pseudoscience. So, this post is just a "gateway" to other sources on the net (plus a reason to post a limerick ;-) ).

I do have my thoughts on Astrology, but that is a subject for a later post.